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Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow — Premier League 2018

Akhmat
Akhmat
Preview
15:00
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
5/29/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Akhmat-Arena
Big match
39%
CSKA Moscow
model favours
34%27%39%

CSKA Moscow have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Akhmat34%
×Draw27%
CSKA Moscow39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat
1.17
CSKA Moscow
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

creates per match

Akhmat
1.27
CSKA Moscow
1.34

allows per match

Akhmat
1.21
CSKA Moscow
1.06

finishing

Akhmat+0.00on par
CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat ↓

CSKA Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Akhmat or draw
61%
Akhmat or CSKA Moscow
73%
Draw or CSKA Moscow
66%

Winning margin

Akhmat wins by 2+
14%
CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Akhmat 1+ goals
69%
Akhmat 2+ goals
33%
Akhmat 3+ goals
11%
CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
72%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
36%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Akhmat (draw refunded)
47%
CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat attack 1.27 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + Akhmat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Akhmat scores more
34%
level
27%
CSKA Moscow scores more
39%

CSKA Moscow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • CSKA Moscow win just 34% against the top half (vs 64% against the bottom)
  • Akhmat outscore their xG (1.6 vs 0.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Akhmat
Direct / counter-attacking
CSKA Moscow
Balanced
42%Possession53%
72%Pass accuracy82%
13.4Shots14.1
0.47xGBiggest gap1.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AkhmatCSKA Moscow

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Akhmat
1
Draws
7
CSKA Moscow
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 60%
1–01–21–10–10–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Akhmat
WDWWD
Moscow
LLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow — Match Preview

Akhmat face CSKA Moscow on May 29, 2027 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Akhmat host CSKA Moscow at Akhmat-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.