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Akhmat Grozny vs PFC Sochi — Premier League 2018

Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PFC Sochi
PFC Sochi
4/23/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Akhmat Grozny44%
×Draw26%
PFC Sochi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny
1.46
PFC Sochi
1.15

Akhmat Grozny creates 27% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 89 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.27
PFC Sochi
1.08

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.21
PFC Sochi
1.66

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par
PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

PFC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw
70%
Akhmat Grozny or PFC Sochi
74%
Draw or PFC Sochi
56%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
22%
PFC Sochi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
77%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
43%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
18%
PFC Sochi 1+ goals
68%
PFC Sochi 2+ goals
32%
PFC Sochi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
60%
PFC Sochi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.27 + PFC Sochi defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

PFC Sochi attack 1.08 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more
44%
level
26%
PFC Sochi scores more
30%

Akhmat Grozny at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akhmat Grozny vs PFC Sochi

Akhmat Grozny beat PFC Sochi 1-0 in Premier League on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.