Akhmat Grozny 3–1 Orenburg: Result & Stats

Akhmat Grozny

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Orenburg

3/4/2023

Premier League · Round 18Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Akhmat Grozny48%

×Draw25%

Orenburg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akhmat GroznyExpected goals in this matchOrenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.13

Akhmat Grozny

1.58

Orenburg

1.13

Akhmat Grozny creates 40% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 91 away

1.27

creates per match

1.05

1.21

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny

1.27

Orenburg

1.05

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny

1.21

Orenburg

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Orenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw

73%

Akhmat Grozny or Orenburg

75%

Draw or Orenburg

52%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

25%

Orenburg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

79%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

47%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

21%

Orenburg 1+ goals

68%

Orenburg 2+ goals

31%

Orenburg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

64%

Orenburg (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.27 + Orenburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.58

Orenburg attack 1.05 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more

48%

level

25%

Orenburg scores more

27%

Akhmat Grozny at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff