Akhmat Grozny 3–1 Orenburg: Result & Stats | Cup

Akhmat Grozny

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Orenburg

8/31/2022

Cup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 1Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Akhmat Grozny55%

×Draw23%

Orenburg22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akhmat GroznyExpected goals in this matchOrenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.11

Akhmat Grozny

1.88

Orenburg

1.11

Akhmat Grozny creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.82

creates per match

0.94

1.29

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny

1.82

Orenburg

0.94

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny

1.29

Orenburg

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Orenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw

78%

Akhmat Grozny or Orenburg

77%

Draw or Orenburg

45%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

32%

Orenburg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

85%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

56%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

29%

Orenburg 1+ goals

67%

Orenburg 2+ goals

30%

Orenburg 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

71%

Orenburg (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Orenburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.82 + Orenburg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.88

Orenburg attack 0.94 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more

55%

level

23%

Orenburg scores more

22%

Akhmat Grozny at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff