Akhmat Grozny 1–3 Lokomotiv Moscow: Result & Stats

Akhmat Grozny

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotiv Moscow

4/13/2019

Premier League · Round 23Akhmat-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Akhmat Grozny37%

×Draw26%

Lokomotiv Moscow37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akhmat GroznyExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.36

Akhmat Grozny

1.35

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

1.27

creates per match

1.52

1.21

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny

1.27

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.52

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny

1.21

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Lokomotiv Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw

63%

Akhmat Grozny or Lokomotiv Moscow

74%

Draw or Lokomotiv Moscow

63%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

17%

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

74%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

39%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

15%

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals

74%

Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals

39%

Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

50%

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Lokomotiv Moscow away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.27 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.52 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more

37%

level

26%

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more

37%

Akhmat Grozny at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff