Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Akhmat Grozny vs Krasnodar — Cup 2019

Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Krasnodar
Krasnodaradvanced
N. Krivtsov 90+3', 60'
M. Cobnan 27'
3/15/2023CupCup · Regions Path - Quarter-finals - 2nd RoundAkhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Akhmat Grozny43%
×Draw24%
Krasnodar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny
1.63
Krasnodar
1.39

Akhmat Grozny creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.82
Krasnodar
1.48

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.29
Krasnodar
1.43

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par
Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Krasnodar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw
67%
Akhmat Grozny or Krasnodar
76%
Draw or Krasnodar
57%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
22%
Krasnodar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
80%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
48%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
22%
Krasnodar 1+ goals
75%
Krasnodar 2+ goals
40%
Krasnodar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
57%
Krasnodar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Krasnodar away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.82 + Krasnodar defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Krasnodar attack 1.48 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more
43%
level
24%
Krasnodar scores more
33%

Akhmat Grozny at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
M. Cobnan
35'
Anton Shvets
39'
Artem Timofeev
46'
G. Agalarov← V. Iljin
46'
V. Kamilov← A. Shvets
60'
N. Krivtsov
65'
J. Córdoba← M. Cobnan
65'
Kady← E. Spertsyan
65'
A. Chernikov← M. Banjac
69'
I. Chernyak← B. Berisha
69'
V. Karapuzov← I. Oleynikov
79'
Batxi← O. Olusegun
83'
M. Bystrov← E. Kharin
83'
C. Ramírez← S. Petrov
86'
Aleksandr Chernikov
90+3'
N. Krivtsov

Possession

37%Akhmat

Shots

9Akhmat

Statistics

AkhmatKrasnodar
Overview
37%Possession63%
9Total Shots16
6Corners3
9Fouls6
Shots
9Total Shots16
2On Target8
5Off Target2
2Blocked6
Passing
37%Possession63%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Akhmat Grozny vs Krasnodar

Krasnodar beat Akhmat Grozny 3-0 in Cup on March 15, 2023.

Goals: M. Cobnan (27'), N. Krivtsov (60', 90+3').

Krasnodar controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.