Akhmat Grozny 0–2 Krasnodar: Result & Stats

Akhmat Grozny

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Krasnodar

V. Iljin 44'

R. Cabella 41'

9/18/2021

Premier League · Round 8Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Akhmat Grozny32%

×Draw26%

Krasnodar42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akhmat GroznyExpected goals in this matchKrasnodar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.41

Akhmat Grozny

1.21

Krasnodar

1.41

Krasnodar creates 17% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 119 away

1.27

creates per match

1.61

1.21

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny

1.27

Krasnodar

1.61

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny

1.21

Krasnodar

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Krasnodar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw

58%

Akhmat Grozny or Krasnodar

74%

Draw or Krasnodar

68%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

13%

Krasnodar wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

70%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

34%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

12%

Krasnodar 1+ goals

76%

Krasnodar 2+ goals

41%

Krasnodar 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

44%

Krasnodar (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Krasnodar away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.27 + Krasnodar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Krasnodar attack 1.61 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more

32%

level

26%

Krasnodar scores more

42%

Krasnodar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Cabella

Krasnodar · M

8.2

Match Events

21'

R. Utsiev← D. Todorović

23'

Eduard Spertsyan

41'

R. Cabella↳ E. Spertsyan

44'

V. Iljin↳ R. Cabella

46'

S. Sebai← M. Konaté

46'

V. Karapuzov← V. Lystsov

46'

L. Sadulaev← A. Arkhipov

55'

Zoran Nižić

65'

Zoran Nižić

65'

Zoran Nižić

66'

E. Sorokin← U. Spajić

68'

Cristian Ramírez

69'

A. Putsko← D. Utkin

80'

Daniil Kornyushin

86'

T. Vilhena← N. Krivtsov

89'

I. Manelov← R. Cabella

89'

D. Stotskiy← E. Spertsyan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AkhmatKrasnodar

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots11

6Corners3

15Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots11

2On Target2

4Off Target6

4Blocked3

2Inside Box5

8Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

401Total Passes403

283Accurate Passes300

71%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1