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Akhmat Grozny vs Krasnodar — Premier League 2018

Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Krasnodar
Krasnodar
4/24/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Akhmat-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Akhmat Grozny32%
×Draw26%
Krasnodar42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny
1.21
Krasnodar
1.41

Krasnodar creates 17% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 119 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.27
Krasnodar
1.61

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.21
Krasnodar
1.16

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par
Krasnodar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Krasnodar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw
58%
Akhmat Grozny or Krasnodar
74%
Draw or Krasnodar
68%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
13%
Krasnodar wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
70%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
34%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
12%
Krasnodar 1+ goals
76%
Krasnodar 2+ goals
41%
Krasnodar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
44%
Krasnodar (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Krasnodar away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.16 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.27 + Krasnodar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Krasnodar attack 1.61 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more
32%
level
26%
Krasnodar scores more
42%

Krasnodar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akhmat Grozny vs Krasnodar

Akhmat Grozny and Krasnodar drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 24, 2019.

The match was played at Akhmat-Arena in Grozny.