Akhmat Grozny 2–0 FC Rostov: Result & Stats

Akhmat Grozny

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Rostov

11/27/2021

Premier League · Round 16Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Akhmat Grozny42%

×Draw26%

FC Rostov32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akhmat GroznyExpected goals in this matchFC Rostov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.19

Akhmat Grozny

1.40

FC Rostov

1.19

Akhmat Grozny creates 18% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

1.27

creates per match

1.18

1.21

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny

1.27

FC Rostov

1.18

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny

1.21

FC Rostov

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

FC Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

FC Rostov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw

68%

Akhmat Grozny or FC Rostov

74%

Draw or FC Rostov

58%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

20%

FC Rostov wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

75%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

41%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

17%

FC Rostov 1+ goals

70%

FC Rostov 2+ goals

33%

FC Rostov 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

57%

FC Rostov (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

FC Rostov away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.27 + FC Rostov defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Rostov attack 1.18 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more

42%

level

26%

FC Rostov scores more

32%

Akhmat Grozny at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff