Akademik Svishtov 4–0 Etar VT II: Result & Stats

Akademik Svishtov

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Etar VT II

11/19/2023

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 15Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Akademik Svishtov67%

×Draw19%

Etar VT II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademik SvishtovExpected goals in this matchEtar VT II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.88

Akademik Svishtov

2.17

Etar VT II

0.88

Akademik Svishtov creates 147% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 85 away

1.98

creates per match

0.85

0.91

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov

1.98

Etar VT II

0.85

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov

0.91

Etar VT II

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Etar VT II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

Etar VT II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw

86%

Akademik Svishtov or Etar VT II

81%

Draw or Etar VT II

33%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+

43%

Etar VT II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals

89%

Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals

64%

Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals

36%

Etar VT II 1+ goals

59%

Etar VT II 2+ goals

22%

Etar VT II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)

83%

Etar VT II (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

Etar VT II away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.35 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + Etar VT II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.17

Etar VT II attack 0.85 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more

67%

level

19%

Etar VT II scores more

14%

Akademik Svishtov at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Akademik Svishtov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff