Akademija Pandev 0–1 Shkupi 1927: Result & Stats

Akademija Pandev

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shkupi 1927

12/10/2023

First League · Round 18Sportski Centar Pandev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Akademija Pandev48%

×Draw26%

Shkupi 192726%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademija PandevExpected goals in this matchShkupi 1927

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.05

Akademija Pandev

1.52

Shkupi 1927

1.05

Akademija Pandev creates 45% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 106 away

1.45

creates per match

1.04

1.06

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Akademija Pandev

1.45

Shkupi 1927

1.04

allows per match

Akademija Pandev

1.06

Shkupi 1927

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademija Pandev+0.00on par

Shkupi 1927+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademija Pandev ↓

Shkupi 1927 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Akademija Pandev or draw

74%

Akademija Pandev or Shkupi 1927

74%

Draw or Shkupi 1927

52%

Winning margin

Akademija Pandev wins by 2+

24%

Shkupi 1927 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Akademija Pandev 1+ goals

78%

Akademija Pandev 2+ goals

45%

Akademija Pandev 3+ goals

20%

Shkupi 1927 1+ goals

65%

Shkupi 1927 2+ goals

28%

Shkupi 1927 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)

65%

Shkupi 1927 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademija Pandev at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

Shkupi 1927 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademija Pandev attack 1.45 + Shkupi 1927 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shkupi 1927 attack 1.04 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Akademija Pandev scores more

48%

level

26%

Shkupi 1927 scores more

26%

Akademija Pandev at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Akademija Pandev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff