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Akademija Pandev vs KF Gostivari — First League 2019

Akademija Pandev
Akademija Pandev
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
10/7/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Blagoj Istatov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Akademija Pandev44%
×Draw28%
KF Gostivari28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademija Pandev
1.29
KF Gostivari
0.97

Akademija Pandev creates 33% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 31 away

creates per match

Akademija Pandev
1.45
KF Gostivari
0.87

allows per match

Akademija Pandev
1.06
KF Gostivari
1.13

finishing

Akademija Pandev+0.00on par
KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademija Pandev ↓

KF Gostivari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Akademija Pandev or draw
72%
Akademija Pandev or KF Gostivari
72%
Draw or KF Gostivari
56%

Winning margin

Akademija Pandev wins by 2+
20%
KF Gostivari wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Akademija Pandev 1+ goals
72%
Akademija Pandev 2+ goals
37%
Akademija Pandev 3+ goals
14%
KF Gostivari 1+ goals
62%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
25%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Akademija Pandev (draw refunded)
61%
KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademija Pandev at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

KF Gostivari away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademija Pandev attack 1.45 + KF Gostivari defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

KF Gostivari attack 0.87 + Akademija Pandev defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Akademija Pandev scores more
44%
level
28%
KF Gostivari scores more
28%

Akademija Pandev at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Akademija Pandev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademija Pandev vs KF Gostivari

KF Gostivari beat Akademija Pandev 1-0 in First League on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Blagoj Istatov in Strumica.