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Ajax W vs ADO Den Haag W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Ajax W
Ajax W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
ADO Den Haag W
ADO Den Haag W
12/17/2023Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 1Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Ajax W61%
×Draw20%
ADO Den Haag W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax W
2.15
ADO Den Haag W
1.10

Ajax W creates 95% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

creates per match

Ajax W
2.67
ADO Den Haag W
1.60

allows per match

Ajax W
0.60
ADO Den Haag W
1.63

finishing

Ajax W+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax W ↓

ADO Den Haag W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ajax W or draw
81%
Ajax W or ADO Den Haag W
80%
Draw or ADO Den Haag W
39%

Winning margin

Ajax W wins by 2+
38%
ADO Den Haag W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ajax W 1+ goals
88%
Ajax W 2+ goals
63%
Ajax W 3+ goals
36%
ADO Den Haag W 1+ goals
67%
ADO Den Haag W 2+ goals
30%
ADO Den Haag W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ajax W (draw refunded)
77%
ADO Den Haag W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.60 · 73 matches

ADO Den Haag W away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax W attack 2.67 + ADO Den Haag W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.15

ADO Den Haag W attack 1.60 + Ajax W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ajax W scores more
61%
level
20%
ADO Den Haag W scores more
19%

Ajax W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ajax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie Women: Ajax W 3–0 ADO Den Haag W

Ajax W beat ADO Den Haag W 3-0 in Eredivisie Women on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.