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Ajax vs Utrecht — Eredivisie 2018

Ajax
Ajax
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Utrecht
Utrecht
3/3/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 24Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Ajax51%
×Draw23%
Utrecht26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax
1.80
Utrecht
1.21

Ajax creates 49% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

creates per match

Ajax
1.85
Utrecht
1.35

allows per match

Ajax
1.06
Utrecht
1.75

finishing

Ajax+0.03on par
Utrecht+0.43scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ajax or draw
74%
Ajax or Utrecht
77%
Draw or Utrecht
49%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+
28%
Utrecht wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals
83%
Ajax 2+ goals
54%
Ajax 3+ goals
27%
Utrecht 1+ goals
70%
Utrecht 2+ goals
34%
Utrecht 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)
67%
Utrecht (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Utrecht away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.75 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 1.85 + Utrecht defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.80

Utrecht attack 1.35 + Ajax defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ajax scores more
51%
level
23%
Utrecht scores more
26%

Ajax at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ajax 2 – 0 Utrecht

Ajax beat Utrecht 2-0 in Eredivisie on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam.