Ajax 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam: Result & Stats

Ajax

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sparta Rotterdam

12/9/2023

Eredivisie · Round 15Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Ajax59%

×Draw22%

Sparta Rotterdam19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaxExpected goals in this matchSparta Rotterdam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.01

Ajax

1.94

Sparta Rotterdam

1.01

Ajax creates 92% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

1.85

creates per match

0.96

1.06

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Ajax

1.85

Sparta Rotterdam

0.96

allows per match

Ajax

1.06

Sparta Rotterdam

2.02

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Ajax+0.03on par

Sparta Rotterdam+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

Sparta Rotterdam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ajax or draw

81%

Ajax or Sparta Rotterdam

78%

Draw or Sparta Rotterdam

41%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+

35%

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals

86%

Ajax 2+ goals

58%

Ajax 3+ goals

30%

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals

64%

Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals

27%

Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)

75%

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Sparta Rotterdam away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.02 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 1.85 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.96 + Ajax defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ajax scores more

59%

level

22%

Sparta Rotterdam scores more

19%

Ajax at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff