Airdrie United 1–1 Clyde: Result & Stats

Airdrie United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Clyde

2/26/2022

League #183 · Round 27Penny Cars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Airdrie United75%

×Draw15%

Clyde9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Airdrie UnitedExpected goals in this matchClyde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

0.80

Airdrie United

2.59

Clyde

0.80

Airdrie United creates 224% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

2.75

creates per match

0.69

0.92

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Airdrie United

2.75

Clyde

0.69

allows per match

Airdrie United

0.92

Clyde

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Airdrie United+0.00on par

Clyde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Airdrie United ↓

Clyde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Airdrie United or draw

91%

Airdrie United or Clyde

85%

Draw or Clyde

25%

Winning margin

Airdrie United wins by 2+

54%

Clyde wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Airdrie United 1+ goals

92%

Airdrie United 2+ goals

73%

Airdrie United 3+ goals

47%

Clyde 1+ goals

55%

Clyde 2+ goals

19%

Clyde 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Airdrie United (draw refunded)

89%

Clyde (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Airdrie United at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Clyde away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Airdrie United attack 2.75 + Clyde defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.59

Clyde attack 0.69 + Airdrie United defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Airdrie United scores more

75%

level

15%

Clyde scores more

9%

Airdrie United at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Airdrie United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff