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AIK W vs Vittsjö W — Damallsvenskan 2020

AIK W
AIK W
Preview
11:00
Vittsjö W
Vittsjö W
8/15/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 14Skytteholms IP
Big match
48%
AIK W
model favours
48%24%28%

Vittsjö W are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

AIK W48%
×Draw24%
Vittsjö W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK W
1.67
Vittsjö W
1.21

AIK W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

AIK W
1.19
Vittsjö W
0.70

allows per match

AIK W
1.71
Vittsjö W
2.15

finishing

AIK W+0.14scores more
Vittsjö W+0.13scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Vittsjö W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AIK W or draw
72%
AIK W or Vittsjö W
76%
Draw or Vittsjö W
52%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+
25%
Vittsjö W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals
81%
AIK W 2+ goals
50%
AIK W 3+ goals
23%
Vittsjö W 1+ goals
70%
Vittsjö W 2+ goals
34%
Vittsjö W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)
63%
Vittsjö W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.71 · 9 matches

Vittsjö W away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.15 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.19 + Vittsjö W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.67

Vittsjö W attack 0.70 + AIK W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AIK W scores more
48%
level
24%
Vittsjö W scores more
28%

AIK W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AIK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Vittsjö W score first in only 27% of matches
  • Vittsjö W have scored in 9 games running
  • Both teams score in 82% of Vittsjö W’s matches
  • Vittsjö W have won 7 of the last 9 meetings
  • Vittsjö W win just 22% against the top half (vs 55% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
AIK W
Direct / counter-attacking
Vittsjö W
Direct / counter-attacking
44%Possession43%
73%Pass accuracy69%
11.8ShotsBiggest gap8.9
1.20xG0.91
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AIK WVittsjö W

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

1
AIK W
1
Draws
7
Vittsjö W
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 22%
0–11–20–02–30–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WLWDW
W
DWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AIK W face Vittsjö W (Damallsvenskan)

Damallsvenskan returns with AIK W hosting Vittsjö W. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

AIK W host Vittsjö W at Skytteholms IP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.