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AIK W vs Växjö W — Damallsvenskan 2020

AIK W
AIK W
Preview
11:00
Växjö W
Växjö W
9/26/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 20Skytteholms IP
Big match
46%
Växjö W
model favours
32%22%46%

Växjö W win just 14% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

AIK W32%
×Draw22%
Växjö W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK W
1.56
Växjö W
1.93

Växjö W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

AIK W
1.01
Växjö W
2.09

allows per match

AIK W
1.77
Växjö W
2.10

finishing

AIK W+0.24scores more
Växjö W-0.09on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Växjö W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

AIK W or draw
54%
AIK W or Växjö W
78%
Draw or Växjö W
68%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+
15%
Växjö W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals
79%
AIK W 2+ goals
46%
AIK W 3+ goals
21%
Växjö W 1+ goals
85%
Växjö W 2+ goals
57%
Växjö W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)
40%
Växjö W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.77 · 8 matches

Växjö W away — creates 2.09, concedes 2.10 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.01 + Växjö W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.56

Växjö W attack 2.09 + AIK W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AIK W scores more
32%
level
22%
Växjö W scores more
46%

Växjö W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Växjö W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
AIK W
Direct / counter-attacking
Växjö W
Balanced
43%Possession50%
73%Pass accuracy78%
11.7Shots13.8
1.08xGBiggest gap1.79
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AIK WVäxjö W

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

4
AIK W
2
Draws
1
Växjö W
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 71%
3–31–22–03–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WLWDW
W
WDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AIK W face Växjö W (Damallsvenskan)

Damallsvenskan returns with AIK W hosting Växjö W. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

AIK W host Växjö W at Skytteholms IP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.