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AIK W vs Rosengård W — Damallsvenskan 2020

AIK W
AIK W
Preview
11:00
Rosengård W
Rosengård W
10/24/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 23Skytteholms IP
Big match
58%
Rosengård W
model favours
20%22%58%

Rosengård W score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

AIK W20%
×Draw22%
Rosengård W58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK W
1.05
Rosengård W
1.96

Rosengård W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 79 away

creates per match

AIK W
1.21
Rosengård W
2.27

allows per match

AIK W
1.65
Rosengård W
0.90

finishing

AIK W+0.00on par
Rosengård W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Rosengård W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

AIK W or draw
42%
AIK W or Rosengård W
78%
Draw or Rosengård W
80%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+
7%
Rosengård W wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals
65%
AIK W 2+ goals
28%
AIK W 3+ goals
9%
Rosengård W 1+ goals
86%
Rosengård W 2+ goals
58%
Rosengård W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)
25%
Rosengård W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

Rosengård W away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.21 + Rosengård W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Rosengård W attack 2.27 + AIK W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

AIK W scores more
20%
level
22%
Rosengård W scores more
58%

Rosengård W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rosengård W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rosengård W win just 47% against the top half (vs 75% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — AIK W play Direct / counter-attacking, Rosengård W Attack-heavy
  • Their last 9 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
AIK W
Direct / counter-attacking
Rosengård W
Attack-heavy
44%Possession55%
73%Pass accuracy81%
11.8Shots16.5
1.20xGBiggest gap2.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AIK WRosengård W

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

3
AIK W
0
Draws
6
Rosengård W
Avg goals: 3.9BTTS: 44%
2–12–11–01–50–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WLWDW
W
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AIK W face Rosengård W (Damallsvenskan)

Damallsvenskan returns with AIK W hosting Rosengård W. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

AIK W host Rosengård W at Skytteholms IP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.