AIK W vs Kristianstad W: Preview & Prediction

AIK W

Preview

11:00

Kristianstad W

8/29/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 16Skytteholms IP

Big match

44%

Kristianstad W

model favours

32%24%44%

AIK W win just 16% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

60%

over 2.5 goals

61%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

AIK W32%

×Draw24%

Kristianstad W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK WExpected goals in this matchKristianstad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.69

AIK W

1.40

Kristianstad W

1.69

Kristianstad W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.01

creates per match

1.60

1.77

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

AIK W

1.01

Kristianstad W

1.60

allows per match

AIK W

1.77

Kristianstad W

1.79

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

AIK W+0.24scores more

Kristianstad W+0.57scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Kristianstad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

AIK W or draw

56%

AIK W or Kristianstad W

76%

Draw or Kristianstad W

68%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+

14%

Kristianstad W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals

75%

AIK W 2+ goals

41%

AIK W 3+ goals

17%

Kristianstad W 1+ goals

82%

Kristianstad W 2+ goals

50%

Kristianstad W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)

42%

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.77 · 8 matches

Kristianstad W away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.79 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.01 + Kristianstad W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kristianstad W attack 1.60 + AIK W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AIK W scores more

32%

level

24%

Kristianstad W scores more

44%

Kristianstad W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kristianstad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Kristianstad W win just 35% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings
Their last 8 meetings averaged 4 goals
Kristianstad W outscore their xG (2.3 vs 1.9 expected)