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AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
3/9/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AIK Stockholm45%
×Draw24%
Kalmar FF31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.64
Kalmar FF
1.31

AIK Stockholm creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
2.08
Kalmar FF
1.93

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
0.69
Kalmar FF
1.20

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
69%
AIK Stockholm or Kalmar FF
76%
Draw or Kalmar FF
55%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
23%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
81%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
49%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
23%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
73%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
38%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
60%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 2.08 + Kalmar FF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.64

Kalmar FF attack 1.93 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
45%
level
24%
Kalmar FF scores more
31%

AIK Stockholm at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF

AIK Stockholm beat Kalmar FF 3-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 9, 2020.

The match was played at Skytteholms IP in Solna.