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Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Kramatorsk — Persha Liga 2019

Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kramatorsk
Kramatorsk
9/20/2019Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 10Stadion Yunist'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Ahrobiznes Volochysk55%
×Draw26%
Kramatorsk19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.52
Kramatorsk
0.78

Ahrobiznes Volochysk creates 95% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 40 away

creates per match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.46
Kramatorsk
0.85

allows per match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.72
Kramatorsk
1.57

finishing

Ahrobiznes Volochysk+0.00on par
Kramatorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrobiznes Volochysk ↓

Kramatorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ahrobiznes Volochysk or draw
81%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk or Kramatorsk
74%
Draw or Kramatorsk
45%

Winning margin

Ahrobiznes Volochysk wins by 2+
29%
Kramatorsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1+ goals
78%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2+ goals
45%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3+ goals
20%
Kramatorsk 1+ goals
54%
Kramatorsk 2+ goals
18%
Kramatorsk 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ahrobiznes Volochysk (draw refunded)
74%
Kramatorsk (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

Kramatorsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk attack 1.46 + Kramatorsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kramatorsk attack 0.85 + Ahrobiznes Volochysk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ahrobiznes Volochysk scores more
55%
level
26%
Kramatorsk scores more
19%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ahrobiznes Volochysk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Kramatorsk

Ahrobiznes Volochysk beat Kramatorsk 2-1 in Persha Liga on September 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Yunist' in Volochysk.