Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin

Águilas Doradas

Preview

20:30

Independiente Medellin

11/8/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Cincuentenario

Big match

41%

Águilas Doradas

model favours

41%27%31%

Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 171+ matches

Águilas Doradas41%

×Draw27%

Independiente Medellin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Águilas Doradas

1.31

Independiente Medellin

1.10

Águilas Doradas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 185 away

1.28

creates per match

1.16

1.05

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.28

Independiente Medellin

1.16

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.05

Independiente Medellin

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

69%

Águilas Doradas or Independiente Medellin

73%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

59%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

19%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

73%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

38%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

14%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

67%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

30%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

57%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.05 · 171 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.28 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

41%

level

27%

Independiente Medellin scores more

31%

Águilas Doradas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Águilas Doradas win just 31% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
Águilas Doradas sit 16, Independiente Medellin 2 in the table
Independiente Medellin outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Águilas Doradas

Balanced

Independiente Medellin

Defensively solid

49%Possession55%

77%Pass accuracy80%

11.8Shots15.1

1.19xGBiggest gap0.85

Águilas DoradasIndependiente Medellin

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4

Águilas Doradas

3

Draws

3

Independiente Medellin

Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 50%

2–12–10–01–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Doradas

DDWDW

Medellin

WDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff