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Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
3/14/2021Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 12Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 171+ matches

Águilas Doradas41%
×Draw27%
Independiente Medellin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.31
Independiente Medellin
1.10

Águilas Doradas creates 19% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 185 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.28
Independiente Medellin
1.16

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
1.05
Independiente Medellin
1.35

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
69%
Águilas Doradas or Independiente Medellin
73%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
59%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
19%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
73%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
38%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
14%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
67%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
30%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
57%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.05 · 171 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.28 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
41%
level
27%
Independiente Medellin scores more
31%

Águilas Doradas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Águilas Doradas 2-0 in Primera A on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro, Antioquia.