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Águilas Doradas vs Huila — Primera A 2018

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huila
Huila
2/13/2018Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 3Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Águilas Doradas49%
×Draw28%
Huila22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.32
Huila
0.79

Águilas Doradas creates 67% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 70 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.28
Huila
0.53

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
1.05
Huila
1.36

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
78%
Águilas Doradas or Huila
72%
Draw or Huila
51%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
23%
Huila wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
73%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
38%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
15%
Huila 1+ goals
55%
Huila 2+ goals
19%
Huila 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
69%
Huila (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.05 · 171 matches

Huila away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.28 + Huila defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

Huila attack 0.53 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
49%
level
28%
Huila scores more
22%

Águilas Doradas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Huila

Águilas Doradas and Huila drew 0-0 in Primera A on February 13, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro.