Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Águilas Doradas vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2018

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
Preview
21:00
Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
9/18/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Cincuentenario
Big match
45%
Águilas Doradas
model favours
45%27%27%

90% of Deportivo Pereira’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Águilas Doradas45%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Pereira27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.36
Deportivo Pereira
0.99

Águilas Doradas creates 37% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 131 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.29
Deportivo Pereira
0.93

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
1.05
Deportivo Pereira
1.43

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Deportivo Pereira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
73%
Águilas Doradas or Deportivo Pereira
73%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira
55%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
74%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
39%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
16%
Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
62%
Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 170 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.29 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.93 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
45%
level
27%
Deportivo Pereira scores more
27%

Águilas Doradas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Deportivo Pereira’s matches
  • Deportivo Pereira raise their game against the top half — 32% wins vs the upper half, only 5% vs the lower
  • Águilas Doradas win just 31% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Águilas Doradas
Balanced
Deportivo Pereira
Balanced
49%Possession48%
77%Pass accuracy78%
11.7Shots11.8
1.19xGBiggest gap1.09
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Águilas DoradasDeportivo Pereira

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Águilas Doradas
5
Draws
1
Deportivo Pereira
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 80%
1–11–05–13–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Doradas
DDWDW
Pereira
WDWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Águilas Doradas host Deportivo Pereira

September 18, 2026: Águilas Doradas take on Deportivo Pereira in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Águilas Doradas host Deportivo Pereira at Estadio Cincuentenario.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.