Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Águilas Doradas vs Deportivo Pereira — Copa Colombia 2019

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
7/31/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 8th Finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Águilas Doradas42%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Pereira30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.25
Deportivo Pereira
1.00

Águilas Doradas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.00
Deportivo Pereira
1.17

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
0.83
Deportivo Pereira
1.50

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Deportivo Pereira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
70%
Águilas Doradas or Deportivo Pereira
72%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira
58%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
71%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
36%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
63%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.00 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.17 + Águilas Doradas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
42%
level
28%
Deportivo Pereira scores more
30%

Águilas Doradas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Deportivo Pereira

Águilas Doradas and Deportivo Pereira drew 1-1 in Copa Colombia on July 31, 2019.