Águilas Doradas 2–1 Deportivo Pasto: Result & Stats

Águilas Doradas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Pasto

5/1/2019

Primera A · Apertura - 19Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 171+ matches

Águilas Doradas45%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Pasto26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.92

Águilas Doradas

1.30

Deportivo Pasto

0.92

Águilas Doradas creates 41% more chances

Season form · 171 home / 172 away

1.28

creates per match

0.79

1.05

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.28

Deportivo Pasto

0.79

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.05

Deportivo Pasto

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

74%

Águilas Doradas or Deportivo Pasto

72%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

55%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

21%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

73%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

37%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

63%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.05 · 171 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.32 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.28 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.30

Deportivo Pasto attack 0.79 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

45%

level

28%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

26%

Águilas Doradas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff