Águilas Doradas 0–4 Deportes Tolima: Result & Stats

Águilas Doradas

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Deportes Tolima

11/18/2023

Primera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 2Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 171+ matches

Águilas Doradas36%

×Draw28%

Deportes Tolima36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.14

Águilas Doradas

1.15

Deportes Tolima

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 171 home / 196 away

1.28

creates per match

1.22

1.05

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.28

Deportes Tolima

1.22

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.05

Deportes Tolima

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Deportes Tolima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

64%

Águilas Doradas or Deportes Tolima

72%

Draw or Deportes Tolima

64%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

15%

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

68%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

32%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

11%

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

68%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

32%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

50%

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.05 · 171 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.28 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

36%

level

28%

Deportes Tolima scores more

36%

Águilas Doradas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff