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Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima — Copa Colombia 2019

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
9/2/2021Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Águilas Doradas30%
×Draw32%
Deportes Tolima38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
0.84
Deportes Tolima
0.99

Deportes Tolima creates 18% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.00
Deportes Tolima
1.15

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
0.83
Deportes Tolima
0.69

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
62%
Águilas Doradas or Deportes Tolima
68%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
70%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
10%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
57%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
21%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
5%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
63%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
26%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
44%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.00 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Deportes Tolima attack 1.15 + Águilas Doradas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
30%
level
32%
Deportes Tolima scores more
38%

Deportes Tolima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Águilas Doradas 0–0 Deportes Tolima

Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima drew 0-0 in Copa Colombia on September 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro, Antioquia.