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Águilas Doradas vs Chico — Primera A 2018

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chico
Chico
4/17/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 14Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Águilas Doradas55%
×Draw23%
Chico23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.86
Chico
1.11

Águilas Doradas creates 68% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.27
Chico
1.11

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
1.11
Chico
2.46

finishing

Águilas Doradas-0.27scores less
Chico-0.91scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Chico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
77%
Águilas Doradas or Chico
77%
Draw or Chico
45%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
31%
Chico wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
84%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
55%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
28%
Chico 1+ goals
67%
Chico 2+ goals
30%
Chico 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
71%
Chico (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.11 · 6 matches

Chico away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.27 + Chico defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.86

Chico attack 1.11 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
55%
level
23%
Chico scores more
23%

Águilas Doradas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Chico

Águilas Doradas beat Chico 2-0 in Primera A on April 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro, Antioquia.