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Águilas Doradas vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
3/7/2021Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 11Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Águilas Doradas37%
×Draw28%
Atletico Nacional35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.18
Atletico Nacional
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.27
Atletico Nacional
1.14

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
1.11
Atletico Nacional
1.08

finishing

Águilas Doradas-0.27scores less
Atletico Nacional+0.16scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
65%
Águilas Doradas or Atletico Nacional
72%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
63%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
69%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
33%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
12%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
68%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
31%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
52%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.11 · 6 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.08 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.27 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Atletico Nacional attack 1.14 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
37%
level
28%
Atletico Nacional scores more
35%

Águilas Doradas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Águilas Doradas 1–1 Atletico Nacional

Águilas Doradas and Atletico Nacional drew 1-1 in Primera A on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro, Antioquia.