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Águila vs Atlético Marte — Primera Division 2019

Águila
Águila
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Marte
Atlético Marte
2/6/2022Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 1st Phase - 5Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Águila55%
×Draw24%
Atlético Marte21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águila
1.67
Atlético Marte
0.92

Águila creates 82% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 56 away

creates per match

Águila
1.72
Atlético Marte
0.91

allows per match

Águila
0.93
Atlético Marte
1.63

finishing

Águila+0.00on par
Atlético Marte+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águila ↓

Atlético Marte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Águila or draw
79%
Águila or Atlético Marte
76%
Draw or Atlético Marte
45%

Winning margin

Águila wins by 2+
30%
Atlético Marte wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Águila 1+ goals
81%
Águila 2+ goals
50%
Águila 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Marte 1+ goals
60%
Atlético Marte 2+ goals
23%
Atlético Marte 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Águila (draw refunded)
73%
Atlético Marte (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águila at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.93 · 156 matches

Atlético Marte away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águila attack 1.72 + Atlético Marte defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atlético Marte attack 0.91 + Águila defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Águila scores more
55%
level
24%
Atlético Marte scores more
21%

Águila at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Águila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Águila 2–1 Atlético Marte

Águila beat Atlético Marte 2-1 in Primera Division on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza in San Miguel.