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Aguai U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Aguai U20
Aguai U20
Preview
18:00
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
8/7/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 10
54%
São Paulo U20
model favours
20%26%54%

São Paulo U20 are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aguai U2020%
×Draw26%
São Paulo U2054%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aguai U20
0.81
São Paulo U20
1.50

São Paulo U20 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 30 away

creates per match

Aguai U20
0.89
São Paulo U20
1.90

allows per match

Aguai U20
1.11
São Paulo U20
0.73

finishing

Aguai U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aguai U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aguai U20 or draw
46%
Aguai U20 or São Paulo U20
74%
Draw or São Paulo U20
80%

Winning margin

Aguai U20 wins by 2+
6%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Aguai U20 1+ goals
56%
Aguai U20 2+ goals
19%
Aguai U20 3+ goals
5%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
78%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
44%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Aguai U20 (draw refunded)
27%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aguai U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aguai U20 attack 0.89 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

São Paulo U20 attack 1.90 + Aguai U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aguai U20 scores more
20%
level
26%
São Paulo U20 scores more
54%

São Paulo U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When São Paulo U20 score first, they win 92% of the time
  • 65% of São Paulo U20’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Aguai U20 sit 27, São Paulo U20 16 in the table
  • São Paulo U20 matches are rarely goalless — only 4.3% end 0-0
  • Aguai U20 and São Paulo U20 have never met before
  • 21% of São Paulo U20’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LLWDD
U20
DWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aguai U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Match Preview

Aguai U20 face São Paulo U20 on August 7, 2026 in this Paulista - U20 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.