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Aguai U20 vs Santo André U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Aguai U20
Aguai U20
Preview
18:00
Santo André U20
Santo André U20
9/4/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 14
39%
Santo André U20
model favours
34%27%39%

Santo André U20 score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aguai U2034%
×Draw27%
Santo André U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aguai U20
1.20
Santo André U20
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Aguai U20
0.89
Santo André U20
1.50

allows per match

Aguai U20
1.11
Santo André U20
1.50

finishing

Aguai U20+0.00on par
Santo André U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aguai U20 ↓

Santo André U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aguai U20 or draw
61%
Aguai U20 or Santo André U20
73%
Draw or Santo André U20
66%

Winning margin

Aguai U20 wins by 2+
14%
Santo André U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Aguai U20 1+ goals
70%
Aguai U20 2+ goals
34%
Aguai U20 3+ goals
12%
Santo André U20 1+ goals
73%
Santo André U20 2+ goals
38%
Santo André U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aguai U20 (draw refunded)
46%
Santo André U20 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aguai U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Santo André U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aguai U20 attack 0.89 + Santo André U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Santo André U20 attack 1.50 + Aguai U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aguai U20 scores more
34%
level
27%
Santo André U20 scores more
39%

Santo André U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santo André U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Aguai U20 sit 27, Santo André U20 12 in the table
  • Aguai U20 and Santo André U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LLWDD
U20
WWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aguai U20 vs Santo André U20 — Match Preview

Aguai U20 face Santo André U20 on September 4, 2026 in this Paulista - U20 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.