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Aguai U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Aguai U20
Aguai U20
Preview
18:00
EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
8/11/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 11
37%
EC São Bernardo U20
model favours
35%29%37%

70% of EC São Bernardo U20’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aguai U2035%
×Draw29%
EC São Bernardo U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aguai U20
1.09
EC São Bernardo U20
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Aguai U20
0.89
EC São Bernardo U20
1.15

allows per match

Aguai U20
1.11
EC São Bernardo U20
1.30

finishing

Aguai U20+0.00on par
EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 62Over: 3862%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aguai U20 ↓

EC São Bernardo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aguai U20 or draw
63%
Aguai U20 or EC São Bernardo U20
71%
Draw or EC São Bernardo U20
65%

Winning margin

Aguai U20 wins by 2+
14%
EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aguai U20 1+ goals
66%
Aguai U20 2+ goals
30%
Aguai U20 3+ goals
10%
EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
68%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
31%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aguai U20 (draw refunded)
49%
EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aguai U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

EC São Bernardo U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aguai U20 attack 0.89 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.15 + Aguai U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aguai U20 scores more
35%
level
29%
EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
37%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Aguai U20 sit 27, EC São Bernardo U20 39 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LLWDD
U20
DLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Aguai U20 host EC São Bernardo U20

August 11, 2026: Aguai U20 take on EC São Bernardo U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.