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Água Santa U20 vs Tanabi SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
Preview
18:00
Tanabi SP U20
Tanabi SP U20
8/21/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 13
47%
Água Santa U20
model favours
47%24%29%

Água Santa U20 sit 5, Tanabi SP U20 44 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Água Santa U2047%
×Draw24%
Tanabi SP U2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Água Santa U20
1.71
Tanabi SP U20
1.31

Água Santa U20 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Água Santa U20
1.53
Tanabi SP U20
1.56

allows per match

Água Santa U20
1.06
Tanabi SP U20
1.88

finishing

Água Santa U20+0.00on par
Tanabi SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Água Santa U20 ↓

Tanabi SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Água Santa U20 or draw
71%
Água Santa U20 or Tanabi SP U20
76%
Draw or Tanabi SP U20
53%

Winning margin

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
25%
Tanabi SP U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Água Santa U20 1+ goals
82%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
51%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
24%
Tanabi SP U20 1+ goals
73%
Tanabi SP U20 2+ goals
38%
Tanabi SP U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
61%
Tanabi SP U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Água Santa U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Tanabi SP U20 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Água Santa U20 attack 1.53 + Tanabi SP U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tanabi SP U20 attack 1.56 + Água Santa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Água Santa U20 scores more
47%
level
24%
Tanabi SP U20 scores more
29%

Água Santa U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Água Santa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 70% of Água Santa U20’s matches
  • Água Santa U20 and Tanabi SP U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DWWDL
U20
LLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Água Santa U20 face Tanabi SP U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Água Santa U20 hosting Tanabi SP U20. Match starts August 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.