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Agropecuario vs Ciudad de Bolívar — Primera Nacional 2026

Agropecuario
Agropecuario
Preview
20:00
Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
8/15/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 25Ofelia Rosenzuaig
35%
Agropecuario
model favours
35%34%31%

Agropecuario sit 17, Ciudad de Bolívar 5 in the table

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
75%
under 2.5 goals
33%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Agropecuario35%
×Draw34%
Ciudad de Bolívar31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agropecuario
0.90
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.82

Agropecuario creates 10% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 10 away

creates per match

Agropecuario
1.29
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.80

allows per match

Agropecuario
0.84
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.50

finishing

Agropecuario+0.00on par
Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agropecuario ↓

Ciudad de Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Agropecuario or draw
69%
Agropecuario or Ciudad de Bolívar
66%
Draw or Ciudad de Bolívar
65%

Winning margin

Agropecuario wins by 2+
12%
Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Agropecuario 1+ goals
59%
Agropecuario 2+ goals
23%
Agropecuario 3+ goals
6%
Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
56%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
20%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Agropecuario (draw refunded)
53%
Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agropecuario at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agropecuario attack 1.29 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.90

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.80 + Agropecuario defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Agropecuario scores more
35%
level
34%
Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
31%

Agropecuario at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Agropecuario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Agropecuario
DLLLD
Bolívar
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Agropecuario vs Ciudad de Bolívar — Match Preview

Agropecuario face Ciudad de Bolívar on August 15, 2026 in this Primera Nacional fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Agropecuario host Ciudad de Bolívar at Ofelia Rosenzuaig.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.