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Agricola Borcea vs Dunarea Calarasi — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Agricola Borcea
Agricola Borcea
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
3/9/2024Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 16Teren Agricola Borcea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Agricola Borcea47%
×Draw23%
Dunarea Calarasi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agricola Borcea
1.78
Dunarea Calarasi
1.37

Agricola Borcea creates 30% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 52 away

creates per match

Agricola Borcea
2.08
Dunarea Calarasi
1.38

allows per match

Agricola Borcea
1.36
Dunarea Calarasi
1.48

finishing

Agricola Borcea+0.00on par
Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agricola Borcea ↓

Dunarea Calarasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Agricola Borcea or draw
70%
Agricola Borcea or Dunarea Calarasi
77%
Draw or Dunarea Calarasi
53%

Winning margin

Agricola Borcea wins by 2+
25%
Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Agricola Borcea 1+ goals
83%
Agricola Borcea 2+ goals
53%
Agricola Borcea 3+ goals
26%
Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
75%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
40%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Agricola Borcea (draw refunded)
61%
Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agricola Borcea at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

Dunarea Calarasi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agricola Borcea attack 2.08 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.78

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.38 + Agricola Borcea defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Agricola Borcea scores more
47%
level
23%
Dunarea Calarasi scores more
30%

Agricola Borcea at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Agricola Borcea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Agricola Borcea vs Dunarea Calarasi

Agricola Borcea beat Dunarea Calarasi 3-0 in Liga III - Serie 3 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Teren Agricola Borcea in Borcea.