AGF W 3–5 Fortuna Hjørring W: Result & Stats

AGF W

FT

3 – 5

HT: 2 – 2

Fortuna Hjørring W

5/4/2024

Kvindeliga · Championship Round - 6Ceres Park & Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

AGF W25%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Hjørring W52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AGF WExpected goals in this matchFortuna Hjørring W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.80

AGF W

1.18

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.80

Fortuna Hjørring W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 80 away

1.33

creates per match

1.93

1.68

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

AGF W

1.33

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.93

allows per match

AGF W

1.68

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AGF W+0.00on par

Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AGF W ↓

Fortuna Hjørring W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

AGF W or draw

48%

AGF W or Fortuna Hjørring W

77%

Draw or Fortuna Hjørring W

75%

Winning margin

AGF W wins by 2+

10%

Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

AGF W 1+ goals

69%

AGF W 2+ goals

33%

AGF W 3+ goals

12%

Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals

83%

Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals

54%

Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

AGF W (draw refunded)

33%

Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AGF W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 57 matches

Fortuna Hjørring W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AGF W attack 1.33 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.93 + AGF W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AGF W scores more

25%

level

23%

Fortuna Hjørring W scores more

52%

Fortuna Hjørring W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fortuna Hjørring W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff