Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
Ali Al Hamadi 74', 39'
L. Norris 83'
K. McAteer 61' (OG)
C. Piergianni 55'
2/28/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 22The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

AFC Wimbledon47%
×Draw28%
Stevenage25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.35
Stevenage
0.90

AFC Wimbledon creates 50% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 100 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.47
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.00
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
75%
AFC Wimbledon or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
53%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
22%
Stevenage wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
74%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
39%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
15%
Stevenage 1+ goals
59%
Stevenage 2+ goals
23%
Stevenage 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
65%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.47 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Stevenage attack 0.80 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
47%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
25%

AFC Wimbledon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
Ali Al HamadiAFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon · F
8.2

Match Events

27'
G. Marsh← L. Brown
39'
Ali Al Hamadi↳ A. Little
43'
Max Clark
46'
J. Tomkinson← D. Horgan
46'
J. Roberts← J. Taylor
46'
M. Bostwick← J. Reeves
52'
J. Forster-Caskey← L. James-Wildin
53'
George Marsh
55'
C. Piergianni↳ J. Forster-Caskey
60'
Paul Kalambayi
60'
Dan Sweeney
61'
K. McAteerOwn goal
70'
Alex Gilbey
74'
Ali Al Hamadi
80'
Jordan Roberts
83'
L. Norris
89'
S. Janneh← J. Davison
90'
S. Pearson← K. McAteer
90+2'
J. March← L. Norris

Possession

59%AFC

Shots

16AFC

Pass accuracy

56%AFC

Statistics

AFCStevenage
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots14
3Corners3
13Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots14
7On Target5
7Off Target5
2Blocked4
11Inside Box11
5Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
447Total Passes316
295Accurate Passes163
66%Pass Accuracy52%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides4

Match Recap: AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage

Stevenage beat AFC Wimbledon 3-2 in League Two on February 28, 2023.

Goals: Ali Al Hamadi (39', 74'), C. Piergianni (55'), K. McAteer (61' o.g.), L. Norris (83').

AFC Wimbledon controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.