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AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth — League One 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
Preview
14:00
Plymouth
Plymouth
4/24/2027League OneLeague One · Round 43The Cherry Red Records Stadium
Big match
52%
Plymouth
model favours
25%23%52%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

AFC Wimbledon25%
×Draw23%
Plymouth52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Plymouth
1.83

Plymouth creates 50% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.66
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

AFC Wimbledon-0.22scores less
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
48%
AFC Wimbledon or Plymouth
77%
Draw or Plymouth
75%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
10%
Plymouth wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
70%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
34%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
12%
Plymouth 1+ goals
84%
Plymouth 2+ goals
54%
Plymouth 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
33%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.22 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Plymouth attack 2.00 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
25%
level
23%
Plymouth scores more
52%

Plymouth at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • AFC Wimbledon sit 19, Plymouth 8 in the table
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Plymouth fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
AFC Wimbledon
Balanced
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
47%Possession49%
68%Pass accuracy68%
10.6Shots13.5
1.16xGBiggest gap2.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AFC WimbledonPlymouth

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

2
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
5
Plymouth
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 50%
1–32–10–20–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wimbledon
DWLWL
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Wimbledon face Plymouth (League One)

League One returns with AFC Wimbledon hosting Plymouth. Match starts April 24, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

AFC Wimbledon host Plymouth at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.