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AFC Wimbledon vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gillingham
Gillingham
J. Currie 71'
E. Chislett 15'
7/30/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 1The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

AFC Wimbledon48%
×Draw27%
Gillingham25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.41
Gillingham
0.95

AFC Wimbledon creates 48% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 101 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.47
Gillingham
0.90

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.00
Gillingham
1.35

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
75%
AFC Wimbledon or Gillingham
73%
Draw or Gillingham
52%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
23%
Gillingham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
76%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
41%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
17%
Gillingham 1+ goals
61%
Gillingham 2+ goals
25%
Gillingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
65%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.47 + Gillingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Gillingham attack 0.90 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
48%
level
27%
Gillingham scores more
25%

AFC Wimbledon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
N. TzanevAFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon · G
7.3

Match Events

9'
William Nightingale
15'
E. Chislett
35'
Max Ehmer
46'
B. Reeves← D. Jefferies
47'
George Marsh
47'
Oliver Lee
57'
Ben Reeves
63'
Edmond-Paris Maghoma
67'
Will Wright
67'
C. Alexander← W. Wright
71'
J. Currie↳ W. Nightingale
81'
Scott Kashket
82'
D. Tutonda← R. Law
82'
J. Gbode← S. Kashket
88'
A. Bendle← E. Chislett
88'
K. Hudlin← J. Davison
90+3'
N. Young-Coombes← A. Assal

Possession

54%AFC

Shots

7AFC

Pass accuracy

51%AFC

Statistics

AFCGillingham
Overview
54%Possession46%
7Total Shots5
3Corners4
12Fouls17
Shots
7Total Shots5
5On Target1
2Off Target4
0Blocked0
4Inside Box3
3Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
430Total Passes372
341Accurate Passes280
79%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls17
3Yellow Cards5
2Offsides0

Match Recap: AFC Wimbledon vs Gillingham

AFC Wimbledon beat Gillingham 2-0 in League Two on July 30, 2022.

Goals: E. Chislett (15'), J. Currie (71').

AFC Wimbledon controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 5.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.