AFC Toronto W 1–1 Vancouver Rise W: Result & Stats

AFC Toronto W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vancouver Rise W

5/11/2025

Northern Super League · Round 2York Lions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

AFC Toronto W49%

×Draw24%

Vancouver Rise W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC Toronto WExpected goals in this matchVancouver Rise W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.27

AFC Toronto W

1.75

Vancouver Rise W

1.27

AFC Toronto W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

1.61

creates per match

1.43

1.11

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

AFC Toronto W

1.61

Vancouver Rise W

1.43

allows per match

AFC Toronto W

1.11

Vancouver Rise W

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Toronto W+0.00on par

Vancouver Rise W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Toronto W ↓

Vancouver Rise W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

AFC Toronto W or draw

72%

AFC Toronto W or Vancouver Rise W

76%

Draw or Vancouver Rise W

51%

Winning margin

AFC Toronto W wins by 2+

26%

Vancouver Rise W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AFC Toronto W 1+ goals

83%

AFC Toronto W 2+ goals

52%

AFC Toronto W 3+ goals

25%

Vancouver Rise W 1+ goals

72%

Vancouver Rise W 2+ goals

36%

Vancouver Rise W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AFC Toronto W (draw refunded)

64%

Vancouver Rise W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Toronto W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Vancouver Rise W away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Toronto W attack 1.61 + Vancouver Rise W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vancouver Rise W attack 1.43 + AFC Toronto W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AFC Toronto W scores more

49%

level

24%

Vancouver Rise W scores more

28%

AFC Toronto W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AFC Toronto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff