AFC Toronto W vs Ottawa Rapid W

AFC Toronto W

Preview

18:00

Ottawa Rapid W

9/26/2026

Northern Super League

Big match

39%

Ottawa Rapid W

model favours

36%25%39%

Top-of-the-table clash — AFC Toronto W 4 vs Ottawa Rapid W 2

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

AFC Toronto W36%

×Draw25%

Ottawa Rapid W39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC Toronto WExpected goals in this matchOttawa Rapid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.47

AFC Toronto W

1.42

Ottawa Rapid W

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.61

creates per match

1.83

1.11

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

AFC Toronto W

1.61

Ottawa Rapid W

1.83

allows per match

AFC Toronto W

1.11

Ottawa Rapid W

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Toronto W+0.00on par

Ottawa Rapid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Toronto W ↓

Ottawa Rapid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AFC Toronto W or draw

61%

AFC Toronto W or Ottawa Rapid W

75%

Draw or Ottawa Rapid W

64%

Winning margin

AFC Toronto W wins by 2+

17%

Ottawa Rapid W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

AFC Toronto W 1+ goals

76%

AFC Toronto W 2+ goals

41%

AFC Toronto W 3+ goals

17%

Ottawa Rapid W 1+ goals

77%

Ottawa Rapid W 2+ goals

43%

Ottawa Rapid W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

AFC Toronto W (draw refunded)

49%

Ottawa Rapid W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Toronto W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Ottawa Rapid W away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Toronto W attack 1.61 + Ottawa Rapid W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ottawa Rapid W attack 1.83 + AFC Toronto W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AFC Toronto W scores more

36%

level

25%

Ottawa Rapid W scores more

39%

Ottawa Rapid W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ottawa Rapid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

AFC Toronto W win just 42% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

LWWD

W

WWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff