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AFC Toronto W vs Montreal Roses W — Northern Super League 2026

AFC Toronto W
AFC Toronto W
Preview
19:00
Montreal Roses W
Montreal Roses W
8/16/2026Northern Super LeagueNorthern Super League
Big match
38%
AFC Toronto W
model favours
38%26%36%

Top-of-the-table clash — AFC Toronto W 4 vs Montreal Roses W 1

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

AFC Toronto W38%
×Draw26%
Montreal Roses W36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Toronto W
1.33
Montreal Roses W
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

AFC Toronto W
1.61
Montreal Roses W
1.47

allows per match

AFC Toronto W
1.11
Montreal Roses W
1.05

finishing

AFC Toronto W+0.00on par
Montreal Roses W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Toronto W ↓

Montreal Roses W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AFC Toronto W or draw
64%
AFC Toronto W or Montreal Roses W
74%
Draw or Montreal Roses W
62%

Winning margin

AFC Toronto W wins by 2+
17%
Montreal Roses W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AFC Toronto W 1+ goals
74%
AFC Toronto W 2+ goals
38%
AFC Toronto W 3+ goals
15%
Montreal Roses W 1+ goals
72%
Montreal Roses W 2+ goals
37%
Montreal Roses W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AFC Toronto W (draw refunded)
51%
Montreal Roses W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Toronto W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Montreal Roses W away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Toronto W attack 1.61 + Montreal Roses W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.33

Montreal Roses W attack 1.47 + AFC Toronto W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AFC Toronto W scores more
38%
level
26%
Montreal Roses W scores more
36%

AFC Toronto W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AFC Toronto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • AFC Toronto W win just 42% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LWWD
W
WWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Toronto W face Montreal Roses W (Northern Super League)

Northern Super League returns with AFC Toronto W hosting Montreal Roses W. Match starts August 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.