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AFC Toronto W vs Halifax Tides W — Northern Super League 2026

AFC Toronto W
AFC Toronto W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Halifax Tides W
Halifax Tides W
6/21/2025Northern Super LeagueNorthern Super League · Round 3York Lions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AFC Toronto W52%
×Draw26%
Halifax Tides W22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Toronto W
1.54
Halifax Tides W
0.91

AFC Toronto W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

AFC Toronto W
1.61
Halifax Tides W
0.71

allows per match

AFC Toronto W
1.11
Halifax Tides W
1.47

finishing

AFC Toronto W+0.00on par
Halifax Tides W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Toronto W ↓

Halifax Tides W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AFC Toronto W or draw
78%
AFC Toronto W or Halifax Tides W
74%
Draw or Halifax Tides W
48%

Winning margin

AFC Toronto W wins by 2+
27%
Halifax Tides W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AFC Toronto W 1+ goals
79%
AFC Toronto W 2+ goals
45%
AFC Toronto W 3+ goals
20%
Halifax Tides W 1+ goals
60%
Halifax Tides W 2+ goals
23%
Halifax Tides W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AFC Toronto W (draw refunded)
70%
Halifax Tides W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Toronto W at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Halifax Tides W away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Toronto W attack 1.61 + Halifax Tides W defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Halifax Tides W attack 0.71 + AFC Toronto W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AFC Toronto W scores more
52%
level
26%
Halifax Tides W scores more
22%

AFC Toronto W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AFC Toronto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern Super League: AFC Toronto W 3–1 Halifax Tides W

AFC Toronto W beat Halifax Tides W 3-1 in Northern Super League on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at York Lions Stadium in Toronto, Ontario.