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AFC Malmo vs Trelleborg — Ettan - Södra 2019

AFC Malmo
AFC Malmo
Preview
11:00
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
8/8/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 16Hyllie IP
Big match
53%
Trelleborg
model favours
24%23%53%

Trelleborg score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AFC Malmo24%
×Draw23%
Trelleborg53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Malmo
1.16
Trelleborg
1.83

Trelleborg creates 58% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

AFC Malmo
1.75
Trelleborg
2.29

allows per match

AFC Malmo
1.38
Trelleborg
0.57

finishing

AFC Malmo+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Malmo ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

AFC Malmo or draw
47%
AFC Malmo or Trelleborg
77%
Draw or Trelleborg
76%

Winning margin

AFC Malmo wins by 2+
9%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

AFC Malmo 1+ goals
69%
AFC Malmo 2+ goals
32%
AFC Malmo 3+ goals
11%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
84%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
54%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

AFC Malmo (draw refunded)
31%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Malmo at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Malmo attack 1.75 + Trelleborg defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.16

Trelleborg attack 2.29 + AFC Malmo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AFC Malmo scores more
24%
level
23%
Trelleborg scores more
53%

Trelleborg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — AFC Malmo 2 vs Trelleborg 1

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Malmo
WLWWW
Trelleborg
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Malmo vs Trelleborg — Match Preview

AFC Malmo face Trelleborg on August 8, 2026 in this Ettan - Södra fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

AFC Malmo host Trelleborg at Hyllie IP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.