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AFC Leopards vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
FT
0 – 1
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
1/9/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 6Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

AFC Leopards48%
×Draw29%
Wazito FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Leopards
1.30
Wazito FC
0.80

AFC Leopards creates 63% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 77 away

creates per match

AFC Leopards
1.15
Wazito FC
0.75

allows per match

AFC Leopards
0.86
Wazito FC
1.45

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw
77%
AFC Leopards or Wazito FC
71%
Draw or Wazito FC
52%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+
23%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals
73%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
37%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
14%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
55%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
19%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
68%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AFC Leopards scores more
48%
level
29%
Wazito FC scores more
23%

AFC Leopards at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Leopards vs Wazito FC

Wazito FC beat AFC Leopards 1-0 in FKF Premier League on January 9, 2021.

The match was played at Moi International Sports Centre in Nairobi.