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AFC Eskilstuna vs Assyriska FF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
Preview
14:00
Assyriska FF
Assyriska FF
7/19/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
65%
AFC Eskilstuna
model favours
65%19%16%

Assyriska FF score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna65%
×Draw19%
Assyriska FF16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
2.29
Assyriska FF
1.06

AFC Eskilstuna creates 116% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
2.25
Assyriska FF
1.00

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.13
Assyriska FF
2.33

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Assyriska FF+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Assyriska FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
84%
AFC Eskilstuna or Assyriska FF
81%
Draw or Assyriska FF
35%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
42%
Assyriska FF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
90%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
66%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
40%
Assyriska FF 1+ goals
65%
Assyriska FF 2+ goals
29%
Assyriska FF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
80%
Assyriska FF (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Assyriska FF away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 2.25 + Assyriska FF defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Assyriska FF attack 1.00 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
65%
level
19%
Assyriska FF scores more
16%

AFC Eskilstuna at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 71% of Assyriska FF’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Eskilstuna
WDWWW
FF
WDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Eskilstuna face Assyriska FF (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with AFC Eskilstuna hosting Assyriska FF. Match starts July 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.